RC125 JulyAug 2026 - Magazine - Page 16
PROJECT DELIVERY
Four practical actions program leaders can take
The issue is not that federal marine programs are unmanageable, nor
that cost growth is inevitable. It is that estimating practice needs to
better re昀氀ect the asset class it is applied to. There are practical steps
that can be taken within existing governance structures.
should be commissioned independently, separate from the primary
design team. Global comparators are often essential, given the limited
size of the Canadian reference set and the consistency of early-stage
underestimation across jurisdictions.
Lastly, the schedule should be treated as a primary cost driver.
Scenario-based pricing across realistic delivery
ranges, rather than a single most likely case, produces
estimates with more meaningful uncertainty bounds
and fewer downstream adjustments.
Federal marine projects operate under different conditions.
Marine cost estimates are shaped by categories of work that
have little direct equivalent in land-based infrastructure.
First, marine-speci昀椀c risks need to be priced explicitly and
transparently, rather than absorbed into global allowances. Subsea
conditions, contaminated materials, contractor availability, seasonal
access, and vessel-speci昀椀cation volatility should each be identi昀椀ed as
distinct cost drivers, with de昀椀ned ranges and assumptions.
Secondly, cost estimates should avoid being locked until operational
requirements have been reconciled across all interdependent 昀氀eet and
infrastructure programs. This may extend early planning stages, but it
reduces the risk of committing to 昀椀gures that were built on unresolved
or contested assumptions.
Thirdly, marine benchmarking for large jetty and terminal projects
The conversation ahead
None of this detracts from the capability or commitment of those delivering Canada’s federal marine infrastructure. The observation is that the frameworks
guiding early decision-making are largely developed
for a di昀昀erent class of asset, and that this di昀昀erence
manifests in consistent, documented ways once programs mature.
The 昀氀eets are coming; vessels are being built and delivered on
timelines that will not wait for shore infrastructure to catch up. The
question for senior leaders is not whether every current estimate
will prove accurate, as experience suggests many will not. The
question is whether the estimating frameworks that produced them
are su昀케ciently robust enough to support the next wave of marine
investment—or whether familiar patterns are about to repeat at a
larger scale.
That is a more di昀케cult conversation, but it is also the one worth
having before the next set of submissions are made.
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