001-48_126_RENEW_SEPT-OCT26_PT - Flipbook - Page 46
CLOSING SHOT
THE SKILLED
WORKER PIPELINE
by Jesse Roy
AS CANADA APPROACHES the 2026 review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico
Agreement, building strength at home has become a national
focus. The Buy Canadian movement remains strong. Governments are committing to double the pace of housing construction and to expand transit and energy infrastructure at a scale
not seen in a generation. But underneath every one of these
ambitions sits the same unresolved question: who will do the building?
Canada has a skilled trades problem, and the numbers are not subtle. The federal government estimates that more than 1.4 million additional trades workers will be needed by 2033 to deliver on housing,
transit, and energy goals. Roughly 700,000 skilled trades workers are
set to retire between 2019 and 2028. In construction alone, BuildForce
Canada projects 245,000 retirements over the next decade.
The cost of the gap is already measurable. Signal49 Research, in a
report prepared for the Future Skills Centre, found the skills mismatch
cost the economy an estimated $2.6 billion in lost GDP in 2024 alone.
For our company, the shortage described above is not a forecast. It is
a hiring reality, and it has a speci昀椀c shape that national 昀椀gures do not
fully capture.
Apprenticeship registrations hit a record high in 2024, which is genuinely encouraging. But completions have remained stuck at roughly
30,000 annually for years. The pipeline is not empty. It is leaking
between entry and certi昀椀cation.
Federal programs like Team Canada Strong—the $6-billion commitment to train 80,000 to 100,000 new Red Seal workers—are a meaningful step and welcome. But these programs are calibrated to the entry
point of the pipeline. The shortage that is hardest to solve sits one tier
up: the journeyperson with a decade of experience, the kind of worker
who can train others and anchor a team. Almost nothing in the current
incentive structure helps employers compete for that tier speci昀椀cally.
That competition is also increasingly asymmetrical. Manufacturers
with signi昀椀cant export exposure, particularly those serving the North
American market, are absorbing trade-related cost pressures that domestically focused producers or companies supported by government
contracts do not face in the same way. When a skilled candidate has
two o昀昀ers on the table and one employer has more wage 昀氀exibility because their cost structure is insulated from those pressures, the policy
gap stops being theoretical. It becomes a hiring outcome.
The Future Skills Centre is direct on this point: Canada’s skilled
trades shortage cannot be met through domestic measures alone. Yet
too few newcomers arrive with the diplomas and trade certi昀椀cations
Jesse Roy is the Chief Experience Officer of GRYB International,
a group of companies that manufacturers a diverse portfolio of
heavy equipment attachments in material handling industries.
46—RENEW CANADA –SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2026
the market needs, a gap the federal government will need to address
as it resets its immigration strategy. Recalibrating immigration policy
without recalibrating it toward the speci昀椀c credentials in shortage
risks solving the wrong problem.
Addressing this requires genuine coordination, not just federal
funding. Provinces and territories control the educational systems
that create pathways into the trades. Indigenous partners, unions, and
training providers all hold pieces of the solution. Businesses need to be
at the table to ensure that what gets built into curricula and immigration criteria re昀氀ects market demand, including the mid-career gap
described above.
Minister Hajdu has rightly pointed to the need to break the lingering stigma around careers in the skilled trades, tying it directly to the
country’s ability to deliver on housing and infrastructure. That stigma
is shifting, slowly. But shifting perception is not enough on its own.
Educational programs need to o昀昀er a visible, well-supported pathway
from training to a stable, well-paying career, not just a better marketing message about the trades.
Design and execution will determine whether Team Canada Strong
becomes a genuine national workforce strategy or another well-funded initiative that struggles to reach the employers and workers who
need it most. Canadians deserve regular, transparent progress reporting that shows real movement, not just commitment.
Canada’s future depends on the people building it. Making sure
those people exist, are trained, are paid competitively, and are supported by policy that matches where the shortage lives, is the work
that has to happen now, not after the next housing target is missed.
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