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Belledune and Tantramar—proposed as multi-billion-dollar capital
expenditures for peaker plants—could instead become hydrogenready
industrial parks, circulareconomy hubs, and universitydriven
innovation corridors. But only if the province shifts its vantage point.
When a utility pours billions of dollars into peaker plants tied to energy
market’s most volatile commodities, it’s fair to question how that
could ever deliver stable electricity costs or reliable supply chains. It’s
like swapping one variablerate mortgage for another while speeding
toward a blind corner, hoping rates drop. That’s not strategy—it’s a
provincewide gamble with ratepayers carrying the risk.
Two decisions make the stakes clear: converting Belledune to burn black
pellets and committing $3.5 billion over 25 years to naturalgas/diesel
generation at Tantramar. Both are marketed as pragmatic reliability
measures, yet both risk locking New Brunswick into longterm costs and
carbon liabilities that contradict its cleanenergy ambitions.
Belledune’s pellet plan locks the province into a centralized, continuing
carbonemissions asset just as global markets shift toward 昀氀exible,
distributed systems. Tantramar adds four to 昀椀ve per cent annual rate
hikes with no credible levelized cost of energy guarantees. That isn’t
planning—it’s hoping the map redraws itself while risks escalate.
Belledune and Tantramar, which are framed as new peaker power sites,
appear more like short-sighted panic than long-view planning.
New Brunswick doesn’t have a hydrogen problem. It has a systems
problem. Fix the system, and hydrogen becomes viable. Ignore the
system, and no roadmap—no matter how wellintentioned—will ever
close the gap.
Because as I learned in the back of that Pontiac, the cure for motion sickness
isn’t to stare at the blur rushing past. It’s to assume the middle seat, lift your
gaze, and 昀椀nd the horizon where the path ahead 昀椀nally becomes clear.
Brian McLaughlin is a New Brunswick-based energy sector
analyst, consultant, and freelance writer with a background
in energy (oil, gas, clean energy) research, alternative
technologies, economic development and business coverage.
He is also co-founder of Decarbonize Canada.
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